Next week, October 17-18th is the Minnesota Water Resources Conference (WRC)—a two-day all-day bash of water scholars and professionals across the state. Typically, presentations focus on hyper-local restoration projects, and recent research by faculty and students, along with workshops on new methods in computing and engineering design. The conference is a great opportunity for making connections in the MSP area. This year and last, I have had the opportunity to present updates on my own research at the WRC. The project that my PhD dissertation centers around is based at the Marcell Experimental Forest near Grand Rapids, Minnesota. Marcell is a site of long-term ecological and hydrological research sponsored by the USFS. What makes Marcell particularly special is that all of the research catchments at the MEF are peatland-dominated, meaning that over the last thousand years, thick layers of partially decomposing organic matter have formed in the center of each forested watershed (if you want to read more about bogs, read this). Specifically, I research the effects of climate change on hydrologic connectivity in these peatland systems. Minnesota has the second-largest acreage of peatland in the United States after Alaska, and the majority of that land is in northern Minnesota near the headwaters of the Mississippi. This means that any effects of climate change on our peatlands may have cascading effects on the hydrology all the way downstream.

Whew.

All that is to say that peatlands are really important to Minnesota ecosystems! Last year, I presented part one of this project: looking at the long-term data coming out of Marcell to track how changes in climate over the last 60 years may have affected the connectivity within the watershed.

From this part of the project, we showed that soil frost is an important element in controlling the streamflow from peatland-dominated watersheds, more so than snow, water table, or any climactic variables. We also showed that there is a clear flow path that snow melt from the catchment follows, through the soil, down the slope, into the water table, and out of the catchment. In the end, we introduce a conceptual framework for how, as climate change progresses and our winters get more erratic, we can expect changes to the partitioning of snowmelt into these distinct flow paths, eventually affecting annual streamflow from these catchments. But how do we prove this framework is true? Well, folks, that is why we are back this year. Last winter we expanded this project, taking new data at an increased spatial resolution across the watershed. Unlike the previous project, which was done using average catchment data, we now have highly local canopy, snow, and soil data to try and piece together what are the exact controls on runoff and how those controls are changing due to warming winters.

From this expanded research we can see how canopy in a dense forest can affect snow accumulation and frost formation – and high-resolution soil moisture data will help us see how frost affects infiltration in different parts of the catchment. One interesting result shows that canopy cover (not snow cover!) is a slightly better indicator of soil frost at a location. I have many theories about this—shading that cools the surface, a proxy for vegetation and antecedent soil moisture—stop by my poster to spit ball!

Especially stay tuned for next year, where we will introduce part 3 where we will use all of this data to model future climate scenarios for a more accurate estimate of how warmer temperatures, increasing snowfall, and changing forest composition will affect hydrology and biogeochemistry within the peatlands.